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Global - It looks like it is the turn of the Euro to come under pressure, as the pound moves back above €1.15 and the dollar is still in demand....
Last week was one of the most volatile periods of this year so far, with the pound looking very sick at one point but managing to move back higher against the Euro and staying soft versus the dollar. After making a good recovery back up above $1.5750 against the Greenback the price has dropped to our major support level again at $1.5550- the lowest point for nine months-and bounced back to open on Monday just above $1.5650. This rate has fallen in value by over 4% in three weeks which is the sharpest decline seen since the turmoil in the markets this time last year and it may take some time now for Sterling to fight back from this shock move. There are some suggestions from senior dealers that this may be the bottom of the current range, but nothing surprises us at the moment and it could be possible to see further losses down to $1.53 at some point, with any upside movement thought to be limited now to around $1.58. It is going to be very difficult to predict with any confidence what may happen given the instability of so many major economies, but the range for Sterling looks to be between $1.55 and $1.58 for this week at least. The Euro remains under huge pressure of late, mainly due to the uncertainty regarding certain member states, and this scenario looks like being us for a good few months.
Source: Cornhill FX
Feb 2010
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